MOSCOW, May 17 (Reuters) — Russia’s wheat exports in the
2024/25 season could amount to 46.9 million metric tons,
according to a consensus forecast by the Russian Union of Grain
Exporters.
The Rusgrain union decided to publish weekly consensus
forecasts “in connection with recent natural disasters that
significantly affect the volume of production of grain and other
basic agricultural crops” until the situation normalises.
This is the first such forecast.
The agriculture ministry estimated wheat exports for the
2022/23 season at 47 million tons.
The 2024 grain harvest in Russia — the world’s biggest
exporter of wheat — suffered from a prolonged return of frost in
May, which affected the central and part of the southern regions
of the country. As of May 16, eight regions had introduced a
state of emergency due to the destruction of crops.
Overall grain exports from Russia in the next season, which
starts on July 1, are estimated at 59.1 million tons, according
to the union’s forecast.
The consensus forecast for the grain harvest in 2024 is
134.5 million tons, of which 86.8 million tons are wheat.
Eduard Zernin, head of the Rusgrain union, said about 20
companies — members of the union and its partners — took part in
the survey.
Russia’s agriculture ministry has estimated the area
replanted due to the May frost to date at 900,000 hectares.
The state weather forecaster still predicts unfavourable
weather conditions in a number of regions. In addition to frost,
dry weather is affecting the harvest in the south of the
country.
The ministry has not changed its grain crop forecast of 132
million tons and still estimates record grain exports this
season. Before the weather anomalies, the ministry estimated
exports at about 70 million tons.
(Reporting by Olga Popova; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)